The Currency of Rightfulness

There is a struggle for being right, as if it were a transaction of money changing hands. Rightfulness has become a currency, which, much like money, has the power to divide and create negative consequences in various aspects of life. It leads to broken families, toxic work environments, social media madness, political tensions, and economic instabilities. The quest to be right, or to be acknowledged as such, becomes a prize obtained at the expense of someone else being deemed wrong. It becomes a winner takes all game, where the rules are often unclear. Subjects are discussed from multiple perspectives and theoretical frameworks, and particular cases are often used to push truths onto general matters. Instead of rigorous analysis, the assertiveness of evidence is measured in terms of the number of sympathizers. Moreover, misinformation and falsehoods are employed to confirm people’s preexisting views.

This phenomenon is not new. Throughout history, religious sects have engaged in battles lasting centuries, all in the name of claiming exclusive truth, resulting in thousands of deaths. Ignaz Semmelweis, a physician in the 19th century, faced ridicule from the medical community when he recommended handwashing before medical procedures, despite the significant evidence showing a decrease in mortality rates in hospitals where this practice was adopted. Countless feuds have occurred in human history, such as Michelangelo vs. Leonardo, Plato vs. Aristotle, Tesla vs. Edison, Newton vs. Leibniz, Einstein vs. Bohr, García Márquez vs. Vargas Llosa, and many more. It begs the question: why is it so challenging to find common ground, and why does the pursuit of being right hold such paramount importance?

The Struggle for Certainty

The French philosopher, mathematician, scientist, and statistician Pierre-Simon Laplace posed a seemingly trivial yet profound question: “Will the sun rise tomorrow?” His intention was to provoke the realization that despite the sun rising every day throughout recorded history, it does not guarantee that it will continue to do so indefinitely. It forces us to acknowledge our lack of certainty and embrace the unknown. Unfortunately, this analysis is sometimes dismissed as obvious or contradictory, as it is considered an extreme case.

Laplace’s aim was to highlight that without knowledge of the causes behind events, true certainty eludes us. However, the reality is that we cannot possibly know the causes of everything, leading us to accept the limitations of our understanding. Even in the simplest systems, such as quantum mechanics, the renowned Heisenberg uncertainty principle asserts that we cannot simultaneously know all variables. The complexity of everyday human life only magnifies this uncertainty.

History and science have consistently demonstrated that true certainty is unattainable. Instead, we can only make educated bets on the likelihood of our beliefs being correct. We rely on our observations, perceptions of the world, and the construction of mental models based on our beliefs. However, it is crucial to recognize that our senses and reason provide only a limited and surface-level understanding of reality. It is akin to blind men attempting to describe an elephant based solely on the part they touch. Consequently, the likelihood of our models being accurate may be less probable than we assume. If the pursuit of being right is fraught with improbability, the importance of acknowledging and learning from our mistakes becomes even more significant.

The Limitations of Understanding

Most of us grew up to believe that there are right and wrong answers, this is how we pass exams. We used Newton’s mechanics to calculate the precise moment a cannonball will hit the ground. However, the same model fails to accurately predict the orbit of Pluto. Even general relativity, a groundbreaking theory, faces contradictions when confronted with observations from particle physics. Thus, our aspiration should be to develop a good-enough model of reality that aids us in traversing from one side of the river to the other.

Complex systems, including most human systems, are inherently dynamic. The dynamics and variables of such systems rarely remain constant over time, making it highly improbable for the same actions to yield identical effects. In fact, we often overlook a significant portion of the effects that any action may have on a complex system. Therefore, our aim should be to construct a sufficiently accurate model that helps us navigate and adapt within these complex systems.

We must come to terms with the fact that the best we can achieve is a reasonable estimation of the state and dynamics of the world, and the quality of our estimation depends on our specific objectives. Once we acknowledge this reality, it becomes evident that being wrong can serve as a powerful heuristic approach to getting closer to the truth.

The Power of Being Wrong

Imagine you are held captive in a totally obscure room. To be released, you have to guess the race of the person in front of you. There are only two kind of interactions you can have to help you discover the truth. You are either allowed to touch their bodies with one finger at the time, or you can ask one Yes/No questions also one at the time. If you have only 3 interactions allowed, what would you do?

If you rely solely on objective observations, you would utilize your three touches to gather data points and construct a model of the person, hoping to predict their race accurately. Alternatively, you could opt for a heuristic approach by asking specific yes/no questions to guess their race.

In this scenario, each interaction brings you closer to the truth, but it becomes apparent that asking questions significantly increases your chances. Even if you don’t arrive at the correct answer within three questions, your solution space would be considerably narrowed down compared to relying solely on physical touches. Three samples of the person’s body would still leave you far from a reliable model, whereas questioning allows for a more efficient pruning of possibilities.

The Journey Towards Truth

The idea behind this is that being wrong can get you closer to the truth when trying to understand complex systems. Politics, economics and business, are examples of very complex human systems, and yet we try to understand and predict the dynamics of such systems by reaching conclusions from objective observations, wasting a lot of good chance to get closer to the truth by being wrong.

The pursuit of being right has become a pervasive and divisive force. However, history and science teach us that certainty is elusive, and our understanding of the world is limited. Instead of striving for absolute correctness, we must acknowledge the importance of being wrong. Our models and beliefs can only provide a partial and imperfect representation of reality. Embracing the likelihood of being wrong allows us to approach complex systems with humility and curiosity. By pruning our decision tree and embracing the potential for error, we can navigate the complexities of the world with greater clarity and insight.

Laplace astutely wrote, “…it is necessary to know how to guard one’s self against prejudices, illusions of fear, hope, and erroneous ideas, ideas of fortune and happiness, with which the majority of people feed their self-love.”

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